Sunday, January 12, 2014

HOF Review

I want to take a moment and review my predictions versus what actually happened in this year's balloting.  In parentheses is my prediction; the actual total of votes are after.

Moises Alou (3):  6
Jeff Bagwell (just under 50%):  54.3%
Armando Benitez (0):  1
Craig Biggio (just over 75%):  fell 2 votes short of 75%
Barry Bonds (just under 30%):  34.7%
Sean Casey (1):  0
Roger Clemens (just over 30%):  35.4%
Ray Durham (0):  0
Eric Gagne (0):  2
Tom Glavine (just under 75%):  91.9%
Luis Gonzalez (under 10 votes):  5 votes
Jacque Jones (0): 1 vote
Todd Jones (0):  0 votes
Jeff Kent (11%): 15.2%
Paul LoDuca (0): 0
Greg Maddux (over 90%):  97.2%
Edgar Martinez (20%):25.2%
Don Mattingly (under 5%):  8.2%
Fred McGriff (8%):  11.7%
Mark McGwire (4%):  11.0%
Jack Morris (60%):  61.5%
Mike Mussina (28.8%):  20.3%
Hideo Nomo (1 vote):  6 votes
Mike Piazza (45%):  62.2%
Tim Raines (55%):  46.1%
Kenny Rogers (0):  1
Curt Schilling (28%):  29.2%
Richie Sexson (0):  0
Lee Smith (26%):  29.9%
JT Snow (0):  2
Sammy Sosa (less than 5%):  7.2%
Frank Thomas (65%):  83.7%
Mike Timlin (0):   0
Alan Trammell (25%):  20.8%
Larry Walker (12%):  10.2%

Just a few comments:

1.  Predictions I'm most proud of:  Walker, Schilling, Morris, Biggio (I was off by about 5 votes, though I'm sure that's of little consolation to Craig), and Todd Jones.

2.  Predictions I was way off on:  Tim Raines, Mike Piazza, Mike Mussina, Mark McGwire, Don Mattingly, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas.

  • Obviously, the 300 games was a clincher for Glavine.  What may have propelled him to higher percentages was the opportunity for the voters to send him in with his long-time teammate (and commercial co-star) Greg Maddux.  From now on, I can be certain that 300 game winners are 1st ballot HOFers.  Randy Johnson, pack your bags from the summer of 2015.
  • I'm a bit perplexed about Thomas - where exactly is the cutoff for being a DH?  Martinez is a DH, but Thomas is a 1B?  Or is it that Thomas won the 2 MVPs while being a first baseman?  I thought he deserved to make it; I just had no idea over 83% of the voters would agree with me.
  • The average voter submitted almost 8.5 votes per ballot.  With that in mind, the slide towards irrelevance for McGwire, Sosa, McGriff et al was delayed a year.  Had voters average a vote less per ballot (in 2013, they average a little over 6), we would have seen them fall off the ballot.
  • I made a mistake on Mattingly.  Donnie Baseball is eligible for another year.  Not that he's going to make an impact, but I'm sure his supporters wanted him to remain the full length of time before going to the Veterans Committee.
  • By including 3 this year, and Palmeiro falling off the ballot, I think the "logjam" is overstated.  I'm predicting four will get in next year:  Johnson, Biggio, Smoltz and Martinez.  I think Sosa falls off the ballot next year, as well as Mattingly.  The following year Griffey and Hoffman, then in 2017 we may finally see Raines/Piazza/Schilling/Mussina.  Pudge joins the ballot that year, and with PED rumors abound on him, the voters may look back at those who have been on the ballot for a while.
  • Does this mean A-Rod could be on the 2019 ballot?

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