And I have to say to the voters: Thank you.
After reading all the ESPN guys dribble over the possibility of 10 people getting in (I never read an argument against anyone on their website, and Stark/Kurkjian each voted for the maximum 10), I fully expected three to get in, and possibly four. Turns out, it was only Andre Dawson.
If there was only one selected, he wasn't the one I would've chosen, and some have pointed out his weak OBP as a case against him. They're not wrong, but with the support behind him in previous years, I wasn't surprised.
So how did I do in my evaulation?
Roberto Alomar: My prediction - Close, but in. Actual - Close, but out.
Kevin Appier: My prediction - less than 5% Actual - 0.2%
Harold Baines: My prediction - less than 5% Actual - 6.1% (up 0.2%)
Bert Blyleven: My prediction - In. Actual - missed by 5 votes. There are some stubborn voters who agree with me.
Ellis Burks: My prediction - Less than 5%. Actual - 0.4%
Andre Dawson: My prediction - miss by a single vote. Actual - Made it by 15.
Andres Galarraga: My prediction - just over 5%. Actual - 4.1%
Pat Hentgen: Less than 5%, less than 5% (0.2%)
Mike Jackson: Less than 5%, less than 5% (actually, 0%)
Eric Karros: Less than 5%, less than 5% (0.4%)
Ray Lankford: Less than 5%, 0 votes
Barry Larkin: Just into the HOF, 51.6% (missed by 24%)
Edgar Martinez: Near 50%, actually 36.2%
Don Mattingly: 8%, 16.1% (can someone explain why he received more votes than he had since 2002?
Fred McGriff: 15%, 21%
Mark McGwire: 21.9%, 23.8%
Jack Morris: slight increase from 44%, increased to 52.3%
Dale Murphy: slight decrease from last year (62 votes, 11.5%), actually increased by 1 vote
Dave Parker: didn't make a prediction, other than without cocaine, he would've made it. Increased his votes by 1.
Tim Raines: Increase his vote by a couple. Actually increased by 32.
Shane Reynolds: Less than 5%, less than 5%
David Segui: Less than 1.5 votes, received 1.
Alan Trammell: Between 10-20%, actually 22.4%
Robin Ventura: Less than 5% (forgot to write it), 1.3%
Todd Zeile: 0.3%, 0%
I was off on Larkin and Edgar...turns out only playing 4 seasons of 150+ games does affect how one votes, and with Edgar, he ended up 14% of where I thought he'd be, but well within range of reaching the magical plateau in a few years.
He may want to do it before the big shots start hitting the ballots in 2013, however.
I was also surprised Galarraga missed the 5% cutoff. This doesn't bode well for Larry Walker next year, who played most of his career in Colorado.